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***Opinions expressed are those of the author(s). They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of Hyetert.***
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| In 2023, India became the main supplier of weapons to Armenia, effectively replacing Russia, which is immersed in the war in Ukraine. Defense cooperation is in the wake of the Armenian-Indian cooperation, while discussions are underway to establish partnerships in other areas such as strategic software development, including space technology, infrastructure, and renewable energy. Both countries are working to open direct flights, which will facilitate economic cooperation and people-to-people contacts. There is a growing interest in the South Caucasus and Armenia among the Indian think tank and academic community, and the expert communities of the two countries play an important role here. Thus, in two years, Armenia and India have successfully developed close bilateral cooperation based on common interests. Armenia and India are exploring ways to establish cooperation in multilateral formats such as Armenia-India-Iran and Armenia-India-Greece-France.
With global changes in supply chains and logistics driven by geopolitical rivalries and economic transformations, India needs new and secure routes to Russia and Europe. In both directions, the South Caucasus is the shortest option. It could connect India to Russia via Iran and Azerbaijan, Iran and the Caspian Sea, or Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. At the same time, the South Caucasus can become an alternative route for India to Europe, bypassing the Suez Canal along the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea route. In the South Caucasus, Armenia is the only country that is a member of the EAEU and therefore serves as a direct bridge between Iran and this economic union, which clearly highlights the importance of the Persian Gulf-Black Sea international transport and transit corridor for Iran. Western sanctions on Iran are hampering Tehran’s transit potential, but Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, as well as the free trade agreement signed between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union, increase Iran’s chances of becoming a transit hub for India. India needs these routes, India also needs a stable South Caucasus, since it will be impossible to organize large-scale cargo transportation through an unstable region. India’s efforts to stabilize the situation in the South Caucasus by supporting Armenia, as well as the historical and civilizational ties between Armenia and India, naturally make Yerevan a potential key partner for India in the South Caucasus, which is part of its extended neighborhood where it seeks to project its power. India is not just interested in maintaining stability in the region: it has its own interest in maintaining security in the South Caucasus, since a new attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia with the aim of creating a land corridor to Nakhichevan will cut Armenia off from Iran and close the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea route to Europe for India. At the same time, Armenia needs to diversify its foreign and defense policies to adapt to the changing security architecture of the South Caucasus, which has more Turkish and Azerbaijani influence and less Russian presence. Meanwhile, Armenia should be careful not to antagonize Russia or alarm Iran by moving too close to the West and moving away from Russia. In this context, India is a natural choice for Armenia as India has strategic partnerships with Russia and the US and is developing close cooperation with Iran. Thus, geopolitical and geo-economic factors contribute to the transformation of the Armenian-Indian friendship into a strategic partnership. In connection with the above, we draw attention to the Ambassador of India in Yerevan to Armenia Nilakshi Saha Sinha, who, in our assessment, works very effectively. Note that before her appointment she was a high-ranking government and diplomatic official. There is no doubt that she is part of the upper strata of India’s political and intellectual elite. In recent years, she has been the official translator for Prime Minister Narendra Modi (2014 – 2022). According to Indian sources, she speaks 15 languages. Sinha accompanied the prime minister on 14 important foreign trips. Please note that there are over 30 thousand Indian citizens legally in Armenia who work in various sectors of the economy. Let us also note that India is showing serious interest in the Dry Port project in the Shirak region of Armenia. This project fits well into the larger transport project of the North-South corridor. In 2023, the volume of mutual trade grew by more than 7%, reaching $380 million. This is a good figure; if we consider it as a starting point, it is even high. Despite the fact that the level of investment from India in the Armenian economy is still very low ($1.1 million), 49% of Armenian respondents assess relations with India as “very good,” while another 44% assess them as generally good. In fact, we are talking about a 93% positive rating of India in Armenia. Few countries can boast of this. In conclusion, we note that in June the results of the next parliamentary elections were announced, as a result of which Prime Minister Modi retained his seat. Some Indian experts say that after his re-election, Modi plans to visit 10 countries important to India. They also believe that Armenia may be on this list. There is no confirmation of this, nor any refutation. If such a visit actually takes place, it will be of exceptional importance for advancing the agenda of the Armenian-Indian strategic partnership. (The author is a free-lance journalist based in Yerevan and author of a number on books on Armenian politics. This article first appeared in InternationalAffairsReview.com on October 28, 2024.) |
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