Ani Yeghiazaryan
Yerablur Military Pantheon cemetery in Yerevan on the eve of a day of Armenian national mourning to commemorate those killed in the Nagorno-Karabakh War. December 18, 2020. (REUTERS/Artem Mikryukov)
As the South Caucasus looks to move on following last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan, shared infrastructure projects could help foster greater regional stability and improve the chances for a sustainable peace. In particular, Armenia could benefit from participation in the ambitious Middle Corridor international infrastructure initiative, which envisages a transit route stretching from China to Europe via Turkey.
The almost 9,000 kilometer proposed route of the Middle Corridor includes stretches in Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hoping to convince Beijing that the corridor can serve as one of the main routes for China’s One Belt, One Road drive. This would strengthen the Turkish position as a regional energy, trade, and economic hub while deepening the country’s ties with the South Caucasus and Central Asia regions, which Ankara regards as areas of vital national interest.
As well as potentially helping to establish Turkey as one of the world’s top ten economies, the Middle Corridor initiative could also significantly reduce transit time between Chinese and European markets. The corridor offers the possibility of a 12-day freight time frame. This compares favorably to the 20-day travel time via Russia or more than 30 days via existing maritime options. The Middle Corridor would also benefit from up-to-date infrastructure and relatively favorable terrain.
The route has significant geopolitical advantages over alternative corridors passing through Russia and Iran, which both currently have tense relations with the Western world. Concerns exist that a future worsening of these ties could have a negative impact on the transit of freight through either country to the West.
Given the importance of the Middle Corridor initiative for Turkey, it is no surprise that Erdogan is interested in establishing a lasting peace in the South Caucasus region as part of ongoing efforts to persuade the Chinese that this is the most profitable transit route to Europe.
In order to strengthen his argument, Erdogan is reportedly now trying to initiate a new branch of the Middile Corridor in the South Caucasus. In addition to the envisaged Georgian Corridor, the Turkish leader seeks to add an alternative Armenian Corridor (Syunik Corridor). During a recent visit to Azerbaijan, Erdogan spoke about the need to create a six-country regional cooperation platform featuring Armenia, Iran, Georgia, Turkey, Russia, and Azerbaijan. He also noted that tensions between Georgia and Russia are particularly problematic from an infrastructure perspective.
The Turkish leader appears to be concerned over the potential for a serious crisis in Georgian-Russian relations and the threat this would pose to existing oil, gas, and rail infrastructure running through Georgia. This is one of the reasons why there is now active discussion over the need for an additional Armenian Corridor.
Any Armenian Corridor would be likely to pass through the south of the country rather than the north. This would help to integrate Azerbaijan’s isolated Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic into the infrastructure of the wider region, while also not requiring the full normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.
Armenian involvement in the Middle Corridor initiative would strengthen claims that the South Caucasus region is now a reliable transit route. Prior to the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Turkey had struggled to overcome Chinese concerns over the possibility of a fresh conflict in the South Caucasus. The post-war environment potentially creates opportunities to develop the Middle Corridor with renewed vigor.
Turkey’s geopolitical interest in the stability of the South Caucasus represents a trump card for Armenia as the country seeks stability and security following last year’s military defeat. It creates the basis for pragmatic dialog with Turkey towards mutually beneficial cooperation.
The potential advantages for Armenia of participation in the Middle Corridor are considerable. It would generate welcome additional revenues for the country while also creating trade opportunities and helping with the diversification of energy supplies. Crucially, the corridor would also dramatically increase interdependence between the countries of the region, thereby decreasing the likelihood of a return to open conflict.
This makes it hard to argue with recent Turkish statements that Armenia and the Armenian people will have the most to benefit from deeper international cooperation in the South Caucasus. Armenia remains traumatized by the shocks of last year’s military defeat, but there is hope that involvement in international infrastructure initiatives such as the Middle Corridor could now offer a viable route towards greater security and prosperity.
Ani Yeghiazaryan is a research fellow at the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs.
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