On Sunday morning, Azerbaijan air, artillery and armored forces launched a large-scale offensive targeting Armenian settlements and troops positions across the length of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Following a bloody war in the early 1990s, Azerbaijan and Armenian troops have continually skirmished at the region’s fortified borders. Passions remain high due to past ethnic cleansing and atrocities perpetrated by both sides, as well as the religious divide between Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan.
However, the current fighting is of unusual breadth and severity. Armenia has declared martial law and begun mobilizing reservists. Azerbaijan has closed its airports.
Turkey has openly asserted its support for the Azerbaijani offensive, while Russia is officially allied with Armenia.
You can read this earlier article to learn more about the events leading up to the current escalation, and the reports emerging from the war zone.
This article looks at the apparent involvement of Turkish-built drones in the conflict, followed by a look at the most recent reports on losses and changes in territory.
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have released combat footage in a bid to influence the narrative of who is “winning” the conflict.
Armenian military sources have released extensive footage depicting damage or destruction of Armenian tanks and armored vehicles by ground forces. Azerbaijan, by contrast, has primarily released videos of drone strikes picking off air defense and armored vehicles.
This by itself is not a new phenomenon. Azerbaijan earlier purchased a variety of advanced unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) from Israel, and in 2016 was the first nation to use a kamikaze drone in combat when it crashed a Harops loitering munition into a bus full of Armenian militia. These drones were again active during fighting July 2020.
However, the drone strike footage shared by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense in September showed something different—an interface which appears identical to the TB2 Bayraktar UCAV drone employed by Turkey.
Turkey has used the Bayraktar aggressively in conflicts Libya and Syria in 2020, with operationally decisive results. Though opposing surface-to-air missiles shot down a significant number of drones, the Turkish UCAVs in turn still managed to methodically pick off (manned) air defense vehicles one by one.
And once the air defenses were suppressed, Turkish drones could ravage enemy bases, artillery positions and vehicle columns unhindered with lightweight precision missiles.
It doesn’t take a master of forensics to spot why the video released by Azerbaijan’s MoD looks very much like it’s coming from a TB2. Consider the following footage of Turkish military TB2 strikes in Syria and Libya.
Now compare it to these videos released by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense in which drones picks off what appear to be 2K33 Osa (codenamed SA-8 Gecko by NATO) short-range air defense systems and other vehicles.
Another video records a drone strike on an Armenian T-72 tank.
And another appears to show a drone observing and possibly helping direct artillery strikes.
If the presence of the TB2 seems likely based on the interface, their remains the politically consequential question of just who is operating them.
There were reports in June that Azerbaijan was moving towards purchasing Bayraktars, but there were no follow-on reports of a deal being closed. Perhaps this was done quietly, or possibly Turkey transferred Bayraktars to the Azerbaijan military in order to assist in its September offensive.
A final possibility to consider is whether Turkish military personnel are operating Bayraktar drones in support of the Azerbaijani military.
The more direct Turkey’s involvement, the greater the risks of heightened conflict between Armenia and Turkey. Turkish-Armenian relations are already terrible due to the controversy surrounding the Armenian Genocide perpetrated by Ottoman troops in World War I, which Ankara maintains was merely a typical counter-insurgency campaign.
NKR officials have also claimed that Turkey may be using U.S.-built F-16 jets to launch standoff-range cruise missiles at Armenian targets, but no evidence has emerged supporting these claims.
There are also unconfirmed reports that mercenaries from Syria airlifted to Azerbaijan by Turkey have been seen on their way to the Nagorno-Karabakh front.
Where is the Fighting Taking Place? Has Territory Changed Hands?
Fighting is reportedly concentrated at at least four point along the Nagorno-Karabakh -Azerbaijan border, as well as at Vardenis on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
The shelling has spilled far enough south that Iranian media reports that stray rockets landed in an Iranian town.
Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense claimed Sunday to have captured a half-dozen settlements in Nagorno-Karabakh, including the strategic Mrov heights which could be used to interdict logistical links between Yerevan and Nagorno Karabakh.
After initially denying the reports, the NKR president admitted to the loss of settlements/positions, though it later claimed to have retaken some of the lost positions.
It’s also notable that Azerbaijani drones and artillery are launching deeper strikes beyond the border fortifications, including at the NKR capital of Stepanakert.
Photos purporting to show unexploded 300-millimeter rockets suggest that powerful BM-30 Smerch long-range multiple-rocket artillery is being used by Azerbaijani forces.
Azerbaijan reportedly possess 30or 40 BM-30 multiple-rocket launcher trucks, each of which can mount twelves rockets that can strikes targets up to 56 miles away.
The NKR also claimed Azerbaijan had employed highly destructive TOS-1 “flame-throwing” rocket launchers on Monday morning, though without inflicting casualties.
How Heavy Are Losses So Far?
Both sides claim to have inflicted considerable material and personnel losses on their adversaries, while conceding only to much lighter losses of their own. Such discrepancies arise both organically from the “fog of war” as well as deliberate exaggeration in an effort to win the propaganda war.
Azerbaijan’s MoD claims its forces have destroyed 22 tanks and armored fighting vehicles, 15 Osa or Tor short-range air defense systems, 18 drones, eight artillery systems (towed and/or self-propelled) and three ammunition depots, and to have inflicted 550 Armenian killed or wounded.
The NKR has admitted to a total of 31 soldiers killed—an earlier statement also counted 100 wounded. In turn, it claims its forces have shot down four helicopters and 27 drones, knocked out 33 tanks and four other types of armored fighting vehicles, and inflicted around 200 casualties.
A separate report claims the capture of 11 Azerbaijani vehicles, including a BMP-3.
One gruesome video released by Armenia appears to show three knocked-out BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles and ten deceased Azerbaijani soldiers. Other videos show munitions impacting T-72 tanks, BMP-3 fighting vehicles, BTR-82 APCs and an IMR engineering vehicle.
Two Armenian civilians (a woman and a girl) and an Azerbaijani family of five in the town of Gashalti have been reported killed amidst heavy shelling so far, with another 30 Armenian and 19 Azerbaijani civilians injured.
What happens next?
Azerbaijan’s leader Ilham Aliyev may have initiated the current hostilities in a bid to shore up political support after nationalist protestors briefly seized the parliament building in Baku in July during earlier skirmishes with Armenian troops. Thus, it’s possible the war may not last long if territorial gains allow him to “declare victory and go home.”
International pressure from Europe, the U.S. and especially Russia is ramping up to cease the fighting. However, Turkish political and material support for Azerbaijan may partially countervail such pressure for a time.
Escalation risks remain important however, as Armenia and Azerbaijan possess combat aircraft and long-range missiles and rocket artillery that could strike deep into each other’s territory. A wider conflict could disrupt or damage the lucrative oil industry in Azerbaijan, and heighten already simmering tensions between Turkey and Russia following a year marked by clashes in Syria and Libya.
Most importantly, the humanitarian cost of a wider and/or prolonged conflict could be terrible indeed for both Armenians and Azerbaijanis, which makes diplomatic efforts to head off escalation before the fighting gathers more momentum all the more vital.
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