Why Aliyev Turns Skeptic? – Analysts Comment
The Foreign Affairs Ministry of Armenia responded to the last statement of Azerbaijani President on Saturday. Vartan Oskanian replied to the Azeri comprehension of Karabakh regulation methodology, to “arming race” in the neighboring state and to aggressive and belligerent statements of Ilham Aliyev.
“Everybody is well aware, including the Azeris, that the status of Nagorno Karabakh is primary in the Karabakh regulation and it should be decided based on the right of people of Karabakh on choosing its own destiny. Other issues – elimination of conflict aftereffects, return of territories and refugees – stem out of the primary one and will follow it. The package regulation, certainly, can be realized step by step, and we can and are ready to display flexibility”, Armenian foreign minister told Armenpress.
What shall we understand from Oskanian’s comment? Davit Babayan, political analyst from Stepanakert, voices his opinion: “This means that the conflicting sides come to an agreement, sign a peace treaty itemizing all necessary issues of regulation – status of Nagorno Karabakh, territories under Karabakh control, refugees, blockade etc. They settle secondary issues through step-by-step alternative. The package regulation is to be applied for the status of Karabakh as recognition is of declarative character, i.e. Baku should recognize Karabakh as part of Armenia or as a sovereign state. All other issues, demanding technical preparation and finances, can be settled gradually”.
Stepan Safarian, expert at the Armenian Center for Strategic and National Research, thinks that Oskanian’s approach suggests the following: reaching written agreement over all issues, including status, but informing the public about the phases and realizing them gradually in course of time. “In that case, Aliyev can avert serious problems with the public opinion on the threshold of parliamentary elections. Moreover, first steps regarding territories and refugees can be in favor of the Azeri society. Those issues will be settled once Azerbaijan agrees to present guarantees for the status of Karabakh”, Safarian says.
Armenian foreign minister explained earlier what he means by “flexibility”. “We tend to document the right of self-determination of the people of Karabakh and can be flexible as regards the time of the final materialization”. This means that self-determination can be realized in 10-15 years, otherwise Azerbaijan may refuse the status that Yerevan and Stepanakert strive for, once getting Karabakh-controlled territories.
“If we settle issues concerning conflict aftereffects without deciding the status of Karabakh, then one of the sides may reject its obligations changing thus military-political situation”, Babayan says.
A few days prior to Kazan meeting between Armenian and Azeri presidents, Ilham Aliyev displays skepticism over negotiation process. The Azeri President noted in particular that “he tends to peaceful regulation”. “But, as you can see, there is no visible progress here. Therefore we should be ready to liberate our lands by force if needed. To do that, Azerbaijan has to be twice as powerful as Armenia”, Aliyev said, pointing out that the Prague Process suggests step-by-step regulation and, regarding the status, Karabakh can get the highest autonomy within Azerbaijan.
“Azerbaijan, as a rule, either picks at the Minsk group or expresses skepticism over the talks process whenever it fails to get what it wants. Regarding the Azeri definition or estimation of the Prague Process, they pose their wishes as reality”, Oskanian told Armenpress.
Stepan Safarian explains the reason of Ilham Aliyev’s skepticism: “Aliyev pleases Russia by hinting at the prospect of no soon regulation, especially when the immediate regulation is somehow connected with the prospect of locating US military bases in Azerbaijan, regarding which America expects Aliyev’s reply (in an interview to News Week Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan “is no outpost to any country”). The Azeri President, in this regard, tries to make the US understand that it is not satisfied with current agreements and wants more for the price of “its agreement”.
Besides, the expert thinks, Aliyev tries to demonstrate “his own rebellion” against the West’s pressure in demanding Azerbaijan to hold democratic elections and in supporting the opposition.
Vartan Oskanian also noted in his comments that “the increase of Azerbaijan’s military budget owing to dollars from oil does not give them much in essence”. “Azerbaijan can neither attract us with oil, nor, even more so, frighten us. Armenia always has the capacity to counterbalance any military budget of Azerbaijan. In fact, the privilege of the Armenians is not in the military expenses or arming but in being just in their claim. Armenians believe in their righteousness in the Karabakh issue and in case of a war will fight for their land and home – something that the Azeris did not do and will not do”, Oskanian said.
By Tatoul Hakobian
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