A high-ranking Azeri official expects progress from the upcoming talks on the settlement of the long-standing Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper Garabagh. The two countries’ foreign ministers will meet in Moscow on August 24 and the presidents in Kazan, Russia on August 26.
“Chances are high for positive results in the talks… But much depends on the extent of Armenia’s readiness for another step toward a peace agreement”, Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said.
Azimov told journalists on Monday that liberation of Azerbaijan’s seven districts around Garabagh, the return of Azeri refugees home, restoration of communications in the occupied districts and determination of the status of Garabagh residents will be discussed at the meetings.
“Freeing all occupied regions altogether is impossible. Liberation of Upper Garabagh may be discussed only after the seven districts around it are freed.”
Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group mediating the conflict resolution stated during their recent visits to the region that the conflicting sides’ positions have drawn closer due to mutual compromises.
Azimov seemingly confirmed that the Azerbaijani side has made compromises. However, he chose not to mention the details, as elaborating on the matter may impede peace talks.
Azeri and Armenian government sources said earlier that an agreement envisioning ‘package and stage-by-stage’ conflict settlement was deemed possible at the meeting of the two presidents.
The US OSCE MG co-chair Steven Mann earlier expressed optimism on the prospects for signing a peace accord by the year-end.
Mann’s deputy Elizabeth Ruth told Radio Liberty last week that there are ‘great hopes that conditions will emerge for reaching a peace accord’. “We therefore consider the Kazan meeting of the two presidents a real opportunity.”
Ruth noted, however, that no final agreement should be expected at this point, and peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia should continue. “Peace will be achieved either now or in distant future – everything depends on the decisiveness and the will of both sides.”
A confidential source from the Azeri government said following the visit by the mediators to the region in July that the sides reached a final agreement on returning five occupied districts to Azerbaijan. It also said that according to a plan agreed upon with Armenia, this would be followed by signing of a peace agreement and subsequent liberation of the other two districts occupied by Armenia.
An Armenian government source cited talks on holding a referendum in Upper Garabagh in 10-15 years to determine its status. Both countries’ diplomats said that the sides are discussing opening communications, return of Azeri refugees to their homes and stationing of OSCE peacekeepers in the conflict zone.
Some analysts say that the course of talks shows that a settlement remains a distant prospect. Despite the intensifying negotiations, the Azeri and Armenian governments are restrained in taking ‘compromising’ decisions and pushing for a peace accord among the public in their countries, as a compromise would not suit the ambitions of the sides. On the other hand, a peaceful conflict resolution does not appear possible without major concessions.
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