YEREVAN, Armenia Landlocked and stuck in a cold war with two of its four neighbors, Armenia has rarely seemed so alone as in the past few months.
.
Citing terrorism concerns, Russia abruptly sealed its border with Georgia in September and kept it closed for nearly two months, effectively cutting off the road that was the main transit route for Armenian trade with Russia.
.
At the same time, Armenians had to watch from the sidelines as Azerbaijan and Georgia celebrated the completion of a large section of the pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The $3 billion regional energy project bypasses Armenia entirely.
.
Another bitter pill came in October, when the European Union’s executive commission recommended that Turkey start negotiations for full membership without first having to end its rail and land blockade of Armenia.
.
For many people in this impoverished country, the events added up to a scary reminder of their deepening isolation.
.
“If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an island,” said Levon Barseghyan, a political activist in Gyumri, a rundown town on the railroad line that was closed by Turkey in 1992. “Everyone will forget about Armenia.”
.
As winter closes in, bringing the risk of new hardships in a country heavily dependent on imports and foreign aid, the prospects for change appear slim without outside intervention.
.
Armenia’s long-running conflict with Azerbaijan, its oil-producing neighbor to the east, remains one of the more intractable problems left from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
.
Both countries claim Nagorno-Karabakh, a slice of land that is geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists. Their six-year war over Karabakh ended with a ceasefire in 1994, after 35,000 people were killed and an estimated one million people, most of them Azeri, became refugees.
.
Turkey, Armenia’s big neighbor to the west, has backed its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, and closed its land border with Armenia. Turkish leaders have said they would not reopen the border until Armenia takes steps to withdraw its troops from in and around Karabakh. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled despite mediation efforts by Russia, France and the United States.
.
“On neither side is there a public mood that is conducive to compromise,” said a western diplomat in Yerevan, speaking on condition of anonymity.
.
The stalemate has left Armenia boxed in from the east and the west, excluded from the giant Caspian Sea energy pipeline that should provide hefty transit fees for the other countries it passes through.
.
Turkish and Russian goods make their way to Armenia – Turkey is its seventh largest trading partner – but with the added cost of road transit through third countries like Georgia or by the planes that operate flights between Yerevan and Istanbul.
.
Georgia’s roads, however, have sometimes been closed because of political instability or, as was the case this fall, because of action by Russia. Armenia’s only other direct outlet is through Iran to the south, where trade has been hampered by a poor road network and lack of rail lines.
.
Given the impact of their unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenian officials have been eager to revive peace talks. But they have also have refused to make unilateral concessions on Karabakh, which they refer to as liberated Armenian territory, in exchange for Turkey’s reopening of rail and road traffic.
.
“We won’t trade off Karabakh for a railroad,” said the foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, adding that Armenians have learned to cope with their isolation. “Things are evolving around us. Let it be.”
.
Many Armenians, foreign donors and economists are not nearly as sanguine. While the economy has recovered from the near-total blockade on Armenia in the early 1990s, the gross domestic output is no higher than it was in 1988, before a devastating earthquake. A reopening of the eastern and western borders, according to international studies, would quickly boost its growth rate by as much as 50 percent.
.
Meanwhile, despite infusions of cash from Armenians living abroad that account for more than 20 percent of the country’s income, nearly half of the country’s 3 million people live in poverty on less than $2 a day. The limited opportunities have contributed to an exodus of working-age Armenians since independence 13 years ago, with some estimates putting the population loss at nearly 30 percent.
.
Such dire circumstances might be expected to provoke political unrest. But they have not noticeably weakened President Robert Kocharian, a Karabakh native and former commander of the separatist forces who was reelected to a second term last year.
.
“Every day the government tells us our economy can flourish without opening the Turkish border and without solving the Karabakh problem,” said Aram Abrahamyan, editor of the Aravot daily newspaper. “And the government propaganda succeeds with the common people.”
.
A very different scenario was predicted by a private research group called Armenia 2020, which has commissioned studies of the country’s future based on a range of possible developments.
.
One prediction was based on the status quo continuing for another 10 years. It concluded that “if there are no changes, there is no prosperity,” said Arashes Kazakhetsyan, the director of the group.
.
The Armenian government has focused much of its efforts on a two-pronged approach to Turkey. It has appealed directly to Turkish leaders to normalize relations. At the same time, it has tried to increase diplomatic pressure on Turkey, openly questioning Turkey’s fitness to start European Union entry talks before it addresses Armenian grievances.
.
In an interview, Oskanyan said he did not understand why European leaders ignored what he called Turkey’s “faults and shortcomings” with regard to Armenia. “What is regrettable,” he said, “is that Europe is closing its eyes on Turkey’s petulance.”
.
Oskanyan stopped short of saying Turkey’s bid should be rejected, although Armenian lobbying groups have been making that argument in Brussels. While Turkey has changed many of its policies over the last two years to win European Union acceptance, there has been no indication of a shift in its official line toward Armenia.
.
Private contacts between Turks and Armenians will continue to be encouraged, said a senior Turkish diplomat in Ankara. But the diplomat said the political impasse must be broken by Armenia. “We can’t change our policy on the Azeris,” he said. “So the first move has to come from Armenia. We would like to see an opening, even a small opening, on Nagorno-Karabakh.”
.YEREVAN, Armenia Landlocked and stuck in a cold war with two of its four neighbors, Armenia has rarely seemed so alone as in the past few months.
.
Citing terrorism concerns, Russia abruptly sealed its border with Georgia in September and kept it closed for nearly two months, effectively cutting off the road that was the main transit route for Armenian trade with Russia.
.
At the same time, Armenians had to watch from the sidelines as Azerbaijan and Georgia celebrated the completion of a large section of the pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The $3 billion regional energy project bypasses Armenia entirely.
.
Another bitter pill came in October, when the European Union’s executive commission recommended that Turkey start negotiations for full membership without first having to end its rail and land blockade of Armenia.
.
For many people in this impoverished country, the events added up to a scary reminder of their deepening isolation.
.
“If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an island,” said Levon Barseghyan, a political activist in Gyumri, a rundown town on the railroad line that was closed by Turkey in 1992. “Everyone will forget about Armenia.”
.
As winter closes in, bringing the risk of new hardships in a country heavily dependent on imports and foreign aid, the prospects for change appear slim without outside intervention.
.
Armenia’s long-running conflict with Azerbaijan, its oil-producing neighbor to the east, remains one of the more intractable problems left from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
.
Both countries claim Nagorno-Karabakh, a slice of land that is geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists. Their six-year war over Karabakh ended with a ceasefire in 1994, after 35,000 people were killed and an estimated one million people, most of them Azeri, became refugees.
.
Turkey, Armenia’s big neighbor to the west, has backed its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, and closed its land border with Armenia. Turkish leaders have said they would not reopen the border until Armenia takes steps to withdraw its troops from in and around Karabakh. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled despite mediation efforts by Russia, France and the United States.
.
“On neither side is there a public mood that is conducive to compromise,” said a western diplomat in Yerevan, speaking on condition of anonymity.
.
The stalemate has left Armenia boxed in from the east and the west, excluded from the giant Caspian Sea energy pipeline that should provide hefty transit fees for the other countries it passes through.
.
Turkish and Russian goods make their way to Armenia – Turkey is its seventh largest trading partner – but with the added cost of road transit through third countries like Georgia or by the planes that operate flights between Yerevan and Istanbul.
.
Georgia’s roads, however, have sometimes been closed because of political instability or, as was the case this fall, because of action by Russia. Armenia’s only other direct outlet is through Iran to the south, where trade has been hampered by a poor road network and lack of rail lines.
.
Given the impact of their unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenian officials have been eager to revive peace talks. But they have also have refused to make unilateral concessions on Karabakh, which they refer to as liberated Armenian territory, in exchange for Turkey’s reopening of rail and road traffic.
.
“We won’t trade off Karabakh for a railroad,” said the foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, adding that Armenians have learned to cope with their isolation. “Things are evolving around us. Let it be.”
.
Many Armenians, foreign donors and economists are not nearly as sanguine. While the economy has recovered from the near-total blockade on Armenia in the early 1990s, the gross domestic output is no higher than it was in 1988, before a devastating earthquake. A reopening of the eastern and western borders, according to international studies, would quickly boost its growth rate by as much as 50 percent.
.
Meanwhile, despite infusions of cash from Armenians living abroad that account for more than 20 percent of the country’s income, nearly half of the country’s 3 million people live in poverty on less than $2 a day. The limited opportunities have contributed to an exodus of working-age Armenians since independence 13 years ago, with some estimates putting the population loss at nearly 30 percent.
.
Such dire circumstances might be expected to provoke political unrest. But they have not noticeably weakened President Robert Kocharian, a Karabakh native and former commander of the separatist forces who was reelected to a second term last year.
.
“Every day the government tells us our economy can flourish without opening the Turkish border and without solving the Karabakh problem,” said Aram Abrahamyan, editor of the Aravot daily newspaper. “And the government propaganda succeeds with the common people.”
.
A very different scenario was predicted by a private research group called Armenia 2020, which has commissioned studies of the country’s future based on a range of possible developments.
.
One prediction was based on the status quo continuing for another 10 years. It concluded that “if there are no changes, there is no prosperity,” said Arashes Kazakhetsyan, the director of the group.
.
The Armenian government has focused much of its efforts on a two-pronged approach to Turkey. It has appealed directly to Turkish leaders to normalize relations. At the same time, it has tried to increase diplomatic pressure on Turkey, openly questioning Turkey’s fitness to start European Union entry talks before it addresses Armenian grievances.
.
In an interview, Oskanyan said he did not understand why European leaders ignored what he called Turkey’s “faults and shortcomings” with regard to Armenia. “What is regrettable,” he said, “is that Europe is closing its eyes on Turkey’s petulance.”
.
Oskanyan stopped short of saying Turkey’s bid should be rejected, although Armenian lobbying groups have been making that argument in Brussels. While Turkey has changed many of its policies over the last two years to win European Union acceptance, there has been no indication of a shift in its official line toward Armenia.
.
Private contacts between Turks and Armenians will continue to be encouraged, said a senior Turkish diplomat in Ankara. But the diplomat said the political impasse must be broken by Armenia. “We can’t change our policy on the Azeris,” he said. “So the first move has to come from Armenia. We would like to see an opening, even a small opening, on Nagorno-Karabakh.”
.YEREVAN, Armenia Landlocked and stuck in a cold war with two of its four neighbors, Armenia has rarely seemed so alone as in the past few months.
.
Citing terrorism concerns, Russia abruptly sealed its border with Georgia in September and kept it closed for nearly two months, effectively cutting off the road that was the main transit route for Armenian trade with Russia.
.
At the same time, Armenians had to watch from the sidelines as Azerbaijan and Georgia celebrated the completion of a large section of the pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The $3 billion regional energy project bypasses Armenia entirely.
.
Another bitter pill came in October, when the European Union’s executive commission recommended that Turkey start negotiations for full membership without first having to end its rail and land blockade of Armenia.
.
For many people in this impoverished country, the events added up to a scary reminder of their deepening isolation.
.
“If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an island,” said Levon Barseghyan, a political activist in Gyumri, a rundown town on the railroad line that was closed by Turkey in 1992. “Everyone will forget about Armenia.”
.
As winter closes in, bringing the risk of new hardships in a country heavily dependent on imports and foreign aid, the prospects for change appear slim without outside intervention.
.
Armenia’s long-running conflict with Azerbaijan, its oil-producing neighbor to the east, remains one of the more intractable problems left from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
.
Both countries claim Nagorno-Karabakh, a slice of land that is geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists. Their six-year war over Karabakh ended with a ceasefire in 1994, after 35,000 people were killed and an estimated one million people, most of them Azeri, became refugees.
.
Turkey, Armenia’s big neighbor to the west, has backed its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, and closed its land border with Armenia. Turkish leaders have said they would not reopen the border until Armenia takes steps to withdraw its troops from in and around Karabakh. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled despite mediation efforts by Russia, France and the United States.
.
“On neither side is there a public mood that is conducive to compromise,” said a western diplomat in Yerevan, speaking on condition of anonymity.
.
The stalemate has left Armenia boxed in from the east and the west, excluded from the giant Caspian Sea energy pipeline that should provide hefty transit fees for the other countries it passes through.
.
Turkish and Russian goods make their way to Armenia – Turkey is its seventh largest trading partner – but with the added cost of road transit through third countries like Georgia or by the planes that operate flights between Yerevan and Istanbul.
.
Georgia’s roads, however, have sometimes been closed because of political instability or, as was the case this fall, because of action by Russia. Armenia’s only other direct outlet is through Iran to the south, where trade has been hampered by a poor road network and lack of rail lines.
.
Given the impact of their unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenian officials have been eager to revive peace talks. But they have also have refused to make unilateral concessions on Karabakh, which they refer to as liberated Armenian territory, in exchange for Turkey’s reopening of rail and road traffic.
.
“We won’t trade off Karabakh for a railroad,” said the foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, adding that Armenians have learned to cope with their isolation. “Things are evolving around us. Let it be.”
.
Many Armenians, foreign donors and economists are not nearly as sanguine. While the economy has recovered from the near-total blockade on Armenia in the early 1990s, the gross domestic output is no higher than it was in 1988, before a devastating earthquake. A reopening of the eastern and western borders, according to international studies, would quickly boost its growth rate by as much as 50 percent.
.
Meanwhile, despite infusions of cash from Armenians living abroad that account for more than 20 percent of the country’s income, nearly half of the country’s 3 million people live in poverty on less than $2 a day. The limited opportunities have contributed to an exodus of working-age Armenians since independence 13 years ago, with some estimates putting the population loss at nearly 30 percent.
.
Such dire circumstances might be expected to provoke political unrest. But they have not noticeably weakened President Robert Kocharian, a Karabakh native and former commander of the separatist forces who was reelected to a second term last year.
.
“Every day the government tells us our economy can flourish without opening the Turkish border and without solving the Karabakh problem,” said Aram Abrahamyan, editor of the Aravot daily newspaper. “And the government propaganda succeeds with the common people.”
.
A very different scenario was predicted by a private research group called Armenia 2020, which has commissioned studies of the country’s future based on a range of possible developments.
.
One prediction was based on the status quo continuing for another 10 years. It concluded that “if there are no changes, there is no prosperity,” said Arashes Kazakhetsyan, the director of the group.
.
The Armenian government has focused much of its efforts on a two-pronged approach to Turkey. It has appealed directly to Turkish leaders to normalize relations. At the same time, it has tried to increase diplomatic pressure on Turkey, openly questioning Turkey’s fitness to start European Union entry talks before it addresses Armenian grievances.
.
In an interview, Oskanyan said he did not understand why European leaders ignored what he called Turkey’s “faults and shortcomings” with regard to Armenia. “What is regrettable,” he said, “is that Europe is closing its eyes on Turkey’s petulance.”
.
Oskanyan stopped short of saying Turkey’s bid should be rejected, although Armenian lobbying groups have been making that argument in Brussels. While Turkey has changed many of its policies over the last two years to win European Union acceptance, there has been no indication of a shift in its official line toward Armenia.
.
Private contacts between Turks and Armenians will continue to be encouraged, said a senior Turkish diplomat in Ankara. But the diplomat said the political impasse must be broken by Armenia. “We can’t change our policy on the Azeris,” he said. “So the first move has to come from Armenia. We would like to see an opening, even a small opening, on Nagorno-Karabakh.”
.
Yorumlar kapatıldı.