December approaches inexorably. It is then that the European Union has said it will make up its mind on what to do about Turkey’s application for admission to the EU.
The process started in 1964, when it was agreed Turkey could apply. In 1987, there was an application for membership. In December 1999, at the Helsinki summit, Europe agreed that Turkey would be a candidate like any other and judged by the threefold Copenhagen criteria – democratic stability, respect for the law, human and minorities’ rights and willingness to incorporate European law into the legal system. It has been pointed out that, on that basis, Japan could join the European Union.
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder says that Turkey’s membership would increase European security and that the country is entitled to join if it meets the criteria. Angela Merckel, Germany’s opposition leader, has sent a letter to European leaders on the right urging rejection of Turkey’s application, apparently supported by about two thirds of the German electorate. “Our (party’s) foreign policy experts of course have a special regard for Turkey’s geostrategic weight but I have to look inward.” The debate in a nutshell.
In France, President Chirac is in favour but his own party has voted against. It is in December that Europe must make up its mind based on a report from the Commission.
Turkish resentment
Any judgement of Turkey is going to look like a fix whichever way it goes. In their usual blithe way, over the years, European leaders have implied to the Turks that their membership is in the bag providing they clean up their act on human rights and modernise their legal system. They have made huge efforts in that direction and now realise that they risk great humiliation through rejection, just as their government has moved towards Muslim fundamentalism.
From the point of view of many in Europe, the collapse of Soviet Russia and the rise of the Islamic extremist threat have transformed the applicants from a bulwark of defence into a potential Muslim Trojan horse.
The latest row over a proposed Turkish law to make adultery illegal and punishable with imprisonment is a symptom that the Turks are soured by the feeling of being judged and perhaps rejected. The impression is being given that the EU is a Christian club. As their Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan put it, when he told the EU to stop meddling in Turkish affairs, “Membership of the European Union is not the be all and end all for us.” Euro cynics might comment, at this point, that if it is meddling you are against, stay out of the European Union.
Deadline trap
It would make a great deal more sense if the whole question could be put on ice until after the referendum. Until the question of the Constitutional Treaty is settled no one knows what sort of Europe Turkey is applying to join – a point the Turks might be wise to make themselves rather than wait to be insulted.
The usual European penchant for fixing a deadline to get something settled has trapped both parties into a situation from which it is daily becoming more difficult to escape with honour and dignity. Rather late in the day, European leaders are trying to defuse the situation. The report on Turkish readiness to open negotiations is being brought forward to avoid leaving it to the new Commission; the contents are to be toned down to be purely factual, avoiding political judgements, which is easier said than done.
Unforeseen dangers
Europe is now trapped between the twin dangers of a rejected, embittered Turkey on the one hand and on the other a referendum campaign inflamed by the opening of negotiations for membership, to the point that it could affect the result in some countries. No one envisaged the accident of timing that has brought together the referenda on the constitution and the decision on Turkish membership, in the aftermath of September 11th, against a background of Iraq in turmoil. Theoretically, negotiations could take between five and ten years and they might or might not be successful.
In practice, everybody knows that the decision in December is likely to be decisive and fraught with consequence whichever way it goes.
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