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Press review: Nagorno-Karabakh map redrawn and Russian-US ties unlikely to improve in 2021

***Opinions expressed are those of the author(s). They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of Hyetert.***
Kommersant: Second Azerbaijani-Armenian war redraws map lines in South Caucasus

This outgoing year has shown that the post-Soviet space remains a volcano, which is belching out wars, revolutions and other shocks even 30 years after the breakup of the USSR. The key event for the post-Soviet states in 2020 was the second war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, which lasted for 44 days. Unlike the first war in the early 1990s, which resulted in Azerbaijan’s defeat, this time Baku clinched victory, regaining control over a significant part of territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh and also a part of this mountainous region. A peace deal between Yerevan and Baku was reached due to Russia’s mediation. Moscow will not only monitor the compliance with the ceasefire but will also become a guarantor of a future long-term settlement to the Karabakh conflict, Kommersant writes.

The key point of the trilateral deal was an agreement to deploy Russian peacekeepers to the conflict zone in order to prevent the resumption of a military confrontation and create conditions for relaunching the diplomatic process, which has been stalled for a quarter of a century.

The second Karabakh war, which broke out on September 27, was predetermined by many factors. Among those, which ensured Azerbaijan’s victory, was its superiority in armaments, first of all, its total air domination thanks to unmanned aerial vehicles purchased from Israel and Turkey. Experts say Armenia was caught off-guard by advanced “kamikaze drones.” Among other factors for Azerbaijan’s victory was the assistance of Turkish military advisers, and the direct participation of Turkey’s military on the battlefield, which included pilots and gunners, as well as mercenaries from the Middle East (although Azerbaijan strongly denies this).

When touching on the reasons for Armenia’s defeat, experts blame the short-sighted policy of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who allowed the war to break out even though the country was not ready for it, as well as strategic and tactical errors by Armenia’s military command. Azerbaijan’s triumph debased Pashinyan’s calls to grant Nagorno-Karabakh a special status. A huge majority of Armenians believe that the prime minister is to blame for the shameful defeat and the opposition is demanding his resignation. Even if the current wave of protests fails to topple the premier and his government, Pashinyan’s prospects in the next or early elections seem to be rather vague, according to the newspaper.


TASS

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