Politics
“Iran, just like any other country, has the right to develop its nuclear power engineering,” Azeri President Ilham Aliyev says in an interview to Al Jazeera TV. He says that there is nothing illegal in it. “If some countries or organizations feel anxious about this problem, they should try to solve it. The sides should come to mutual understanding. If this anxiety is well-grounded, it must be overcome. However, the sovereign right of any state must also be implicitly observed. That’s why we believe that negotiations are the only possible way-out of this situation,” says Aliyev.
He notes that Iran is Azerbaijan’s closest neighbor, and Baku cannot but care for the fate of the Azeris living in Iran. “The security of your neighbor is your own security. This is an axiom. And this is our approach. That’s why we believe that any problems causing anxiety should be solved through peaceful negotiations. Intimidation and pressure will give nothing,” says Aliyev. (Day.Az)
Aliyev also notes that the public in Azerbaijan is concerned about Iran’s friendly relations with Armenia. “Just imagine, that country has occupied our territories. Naturally, we attentively follow their international contacts to see who is their friend and who is not. On the other hand, there is a system of international relations. Iran is not our only neighbor who has good relations with Armenia. I mean, this factor should not influence Azerbaijan’s political decisions. On the contrary, we should seek even better relations with Armenia’s friends. And we are doing it.” “In diplomacy Azerbaijan must play on Armenia’s field,” says Aliyev. (Day.Az)
Concerning the opening of an Azeri Consulate General in Los-Angeles, Aliyev says that it is very important for Azerbaijan to have a diplomatic representation there. “It is not a secret that California is home to many Armenians. We have opened our consulate general there to be there and to fight with them, with the Armenian lobby,” he says. Shortly, Azerbaijan will open an embassy in Argentina. “In Latin America the strongest Armenian lobby is based in Argentina. You may say – what sense in opening an embassy in a country we have no serious contacts with, but we are doing it to fight with the Armenian lobby in their territory. We must always be ahead of them. And we are. Our diplomatic initiatives, political moves, integration with the regional countries – all this is strengthening out positions,” says Aliyev. (Day.Az)
Aliyev says that “today, Armenia has lost its diplomatic game.” “Their closest allies have become our allies, too, and have begun to give even greater importance to Azerbaijan than to Armenia. As a country, Armenia is not interesting, at all. On the one hand, it is a geographic deadlock, on the other, we have made it an energy deadlock by laying a bypass pipeline and will make it also a transport deadlock by building the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railroad. We will do it despite any protests by organizations and politicians who are far from the region,” says Aliyev. “We must fight them in all directions. I have instructed our Government, all our patriots to fight Armenia at all fronts until they leave our territory. When they leave our territory, I think we will resume our relations and will continue to live as neighbors,” says Aliyev. (Day.Az)
“We hope that the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be settled peacefully. However, should the talks prove to be unsuccessful, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan will, on the will of the Azeri people and with the approval of the Head of State, take action to liberate the Azerbaijani land from the Armenian invaders, the Azerbaijani Defense Minister,” Colonel-General Safar Abiyev stated on October 16 in Baku during the meeting with the delegation of the Ad Hoc Committee for Future Defense and Security of the Defense and Security Committee of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. The delegation was led by the Chairman of the Ad Hoc Committee Vahit Erdem.
The Defense Minister stressed that Azerbaijan co-operated with NATO in 1994 within the framework of the Program “Partnership for peace”, and since 2004 the co-operation has been continued on the basis of the Individual Partnership Action Plan. Abiyev informed the delegates of the military-political situation in the South Caucasus, as well as the history of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. He stressed that “the deployment of large military arsenals in the Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenia poses a serious threat for the large-scale economical projects in the region.”
Azerbaijan-Armenia. Karabakh
“The Co-Chairs of OSCE Minsk Group have began taking their tasks very seriously,” Aydin Mirzazadeh, Vice Chairman of the Standing Commission on Security and Defense of the Milli Majlis (Azerbaijani Parliament), a member of the Political Council of the ruling party “Yeni Azerbaijan” (“New Azerbaijan”) Aydin Mirzazadeh told Trend
He pointed out that OSCE Co-Chairmen have intensified their visits to the region. “The consistent character of the co-chairs’ visits, periodical discussion of agenda issues as well as the growing number of objective aspects give us ground to believe that things are heading toward the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement”, Mirzazadeh said.
He stressed that the radial policy of the official Armenian authorities in the matter is quite understandable — they came into power on the wave of radicalism and nationalism. According to Mirzazadeh, if the radical position of the present Armenian authorities fails to satisfy the interests of the Armenian people, they will show a different attitude during the forthcoming elections.
“The Azeri Government has no obligations to any organization not to start a war,” the former advisor of the Azeri president, political expert Vafa Guluzade says to Mediaforum. He says that the May 1994 cease-fire agreement stipulates that “the cease-fire should last until peace is achieved”: “Azerbaijan has no other obligations, and the Azeri President has repeatedly said that, if no peace agreement is reached, Azerbaijan has an inalienable right to liberate its occupied lands. However, this does not mean that Azerbaijan will war. Everybody, particularly, Europe perfectly knows that Azerbaijan will not war as the real occupant of the Azeri territory is Russia.” “Azerbaijan should undertake commitments only when it is sure that it can win Armenia and Russia in war,” says Guluzade. “Only then the EU may ask Azerbaijan to undertake commitments not to win them.” Guluzade believes that, legally, nothing prevents Azerbaijan from liberating its territories by war: there are no obligations saying it can’t. However, Guluzade reiterates that war is a very hard scenario as “the occupant” is Russia and, if Azerbaijan starts a war, it will have to fight with Russia. Guluzade approves of Azerbaijan’s commitments to international organizations: “All these obligations concern democratization and compliance with the European standards.”
“Azerbaijan may announce a boycott of imports from France, whose National Assembly has adopted a pro-Armenian law,” says Echo daily. “The boycott will be one of the steps to prevent the French Parliament from adopting the law criminalizing the denial of ‘the Armenian Genocide’ in Ottoman Turkey,” Azeri MP, member of the Standing Parliamentary Commission on Defense and Security, the vice chairman of the Ana Veten party Zahid Oruj says in a talk with the daily.
To remind, last week the French National Assembly approved the first reading of a bill criminalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide that took place in Turkey during the WWI. The bill was approved by an absolute majority of deputies. Those who will violate the law will have to pay a fine worth 45,000 EUR ($56,500) or to go to jail for one year. The French legislators passed the bill despite strong protests by the Turkish and Azeri authorities. In order to take force, the bill is yet to be approved by the Senate and ratified by the President.
Oruj says that each Azeri citizen can show his protest against the bill by boycotting French goods. This may be just one of the measures against the bill. “I think it is quite normal and I believe that people who feel insulted should act exactly like that,” says Oruj. True, people should take time with the boycott till the Azeri authorities have given a political assessment of the situation.
Zerkalo daily says: “Indeed, it is terrifying to think that France is one of the democracy ‘trendsetters’ in the world and that the parliament of ‘democratic’ France has adopted an absolutely non-democratic law and that the French authorities close their eyes on all the crimes against humanity committed by Armenian terrorists in the territory of the selfsame France.”
Asked by New Time daily about the expediency of France’s further participation in the OSCE MG after the French Parliament’s last decision, political expert Rovshan Mustafayev said: “I personally consider that the French co-chair should leave the OSCE MG format – either voluntarily or under the pressure of the international community. The best scenario is to involve Turkey in the OSCE MG process. There is no limit for the quantity of the co-chairs, so, Turkey may well become the fourth.” Mustafayev noted that France has always favored Armenia in the Karabakh peace process. “And now that the French Parliament has passed such a decision, it would be naive to hope that France will be impartial in the matter. So, France must observe moral-ethical norms and formally quit the OSCE MG,” Mustafayev said. (New Time)
Azeri Turk Gadynlary association demands removing France from the OSCE MG. Echo reports that during a roundtable “Fictitious ‘Genocide’ of Armenians as a Way to Pressure Turkey,” the Association said: “The adoption of a bill punishing people for not recognizing the ‘Genocide’ of Armenians will certainly harm the image of France. That country makes no distinctions between an aggressor- and a victim-country and supports Armenia, who committed genocide against the residents of the Azeri town of Khojaly.”
In his turn, Azeri MP Fazail Ibragimli says that those who do not wish to see Turkey in the EU immediately “remember” the so-called Armenian Genocide. “As long ago as in the 1920s an Italian politician said: “If somebody wants to get anything from Turkey or if Turkey denies somebody anything, he immediately reminds that country of the ‘Genocide’ of Armenians,” says Ibragimli. The head of the Azeri community of Nagorno-Karabakh Nizami Bakhmanov also suggests removing France from the OSCE MG. Day.Az reports Bakhmanov to say that the adoption of the bill may have negative consequences. “The French Ambassador to Azerbaijan tried to reassure us that the adoption procedure consists of several stages. So, we have just to wait and to take necessary steps if the law is still adopted,” he says.
“The French Government does not support the legislative proposal of the Socialist Party to criminalize the denial of the Armenian Genocide. Moreover, the French Government objects to this initiative,” French Ambassador to Azerbaijan Bernard du Chaffaut said during a press-conference in Baku. TURAN news agency reports him to explain that in France there are two bodies that have the right to advance a legislative initiative: the Government and the Parliament. The Government’s documents are called bills, the Parliament’s ones – legislative proposals.
In this particular case, the Socialist Party has made a legislative proposal. Chaffaut said that in France the adoption of law is a multi-stage procedure. Even if approved by the National Assembly, a legislative proposal should be also approved by the Senate. The Senate has the right to make changes to the text of the document and to send it back to the National Assembly. If the National Assembly rejects the changes, it can re-send it to the Senate. And if the Senate rejects the proposal for the second time, the sides set up a conciliatory committee who adopts the final decision.
Du Chaffaut said that on the previous day the French Foreign Minister had told him on the phone that the French Government did not support the initiative of the French parliamentarians. He even said that France did not stipulate that Turkey should recognize the Armenian Genocide for qualifying for the EU membership. In the Turkey-EU problem, France stays adherent to the Copenhagen principles. They stipulate the protection of human rights, the freedom of speech, the respect of the rights of ethnic minorities and the recognition of the independence of Cyprus. Concerning the address of the Azeri Parliament to the National Assembly to France, which questions the impartiality of France as a mediator in the Karabakh peace process, Chaffaut said that the French co-chair of the OSCE MG represents the position of the Government rather than the Parliament.
Azerbaijan-Georgia
Asked by Echo daily why the GUAM parliamentary speakers have refrained from direct support of Georgia’s position in its conflict with Moscow, political expert, doctor of history Eldar Ismailov said: “In this situation, Georgia’s partners have shown a diplomatic tact, and I think that to directly support Georgia in its conflict with Russia would mean for them to enter into a similar conflict. None of the GUAM states — except for Georgia — is ready for such a conflict today. That’s why they expressed their attitude in a diplomatic form. We don’t know what is happening backstage, but we understand that Georgia had to address its GUAM partners and they had to express their attitude in the form they did. This does not mean that they sympathize with Russia in the conflict. I think that, in any case, all the three countries should sympathize with Georgia, because they all have problems with separatism, and Russia is actively benefiting from them. Still none of them will benefit from antagonism with Russia.”
Zerkalo daily writes about the aggravation of Russian-Georgian relations: “In this situation, Georgia very much needs the support of Europe and its post-Soviet partners. The EU said it was firmly resolved to stop the embargo and to restore good-neighbor relations between Russia and Georgia. However, they in Europe also have problems. The EU informal leaders (France, Germany and Italy) believe that the Russian-Georgian conflict is a problem of two “third states.” In other words, the EU “old members” prefer not to quarrel with Russia, who is their key fuel supplier and is getting increasingly stronger due to growing oil and gas prices.
So, now, there is nothing else left Georgia to do but to rely on its post-Soviet partners – GUAM states. However, the Chisinau Summit has shown that they are not very much reliable either. So, Tbilisi can only hope that GUAM will persuade the US and Europe to take more pro-Georgian position.
And, certainly, Georgia will need special support from Azerbaijan. However, it’s not all that simple. Moscow has really gone at Georgia, and one of its key levers to pressure that country is economic blockade, which will gradually aggravate the social-economic situation there and will ultimately result in the overthrow of Mikhail Saakashvili. Last autumn-winter Azerbaijan helped Georgia out of energy crisis by lending the country natural gas. Now, Georgia is asking for help again – last week Georgian Energy Minister Nika Gilauri visited Baku with a view to sign a contract with the Azeri Fuel and Energy Ministry for gas supplies to Georgia from Shah Deniz field. It is known that Georgia wants to buy 300mln c m but it is not known for how much. If Azerbaijan offers its gas at a lower price than Russian Gazprom does, this may cause a controversial reaction in Moscow.
The same is for the possibility of reselling Russian gas to Georgia. Gazprom will certainly be against this intermediary mission.
It is not yet known either if the infrastructure for Iranian gas supplies to Georgia will be ready by the end of this year. This is not only an economic but also a political matter: Tehran is Moscow’s strategic partner and hopes that it will help it avoid international sanctions.
In other words, very shortly we may witness a situation when the question – “Will Saakashvili hold out?” – will fully depend on Azerbaijan. If Baku helps Georgia, the Azeris in Russia may face the same situation as the Russia-based Georgians are facing now. On the other hand, the US, who is very much interested in pro-western Georgia, will active lobby others to support that country. So, Azerbaijan may find itself between two fires. It will start haggling again and will give preference to the force offering bigger political dividends. (Zerkalo)
“Azerbaijan is ready to help Georgia by providing its territory for Iranian gas supplies to that country,” says Azeri Industry and Energy Minister Natik Aliyev. “Today, a Georgian delegation led by Energy Minister Nikoloz Gilauri has gone to Iran for negotiations. The sides have not yet reached any specific agreement but, if they do, we are ready to help Georgia to carry the Iranian gas via our territory,” says Aliyev. Azerbaijan may also supply Georgia with gas this winter. “Last year our country helped Georgia after the breakage of the gas pipeline from Russia. We can help them this year, too, but only after satisfying our own demand. If we have any gas left, we will supply it to Georgia,” says Aliyev. (525th Newspaper)
Echo says: “The main question is what position Azerbaijan should take in the Georgian-Russian confrontation. On the one hand, if we start helping Georgia, Moscow will start pressuring us, on the other, we cooperate with Georgia in the framework of the pro-western GUAM bloc and energy projects.
Besides, Tbilisi will seek to get the gas we buy from Russia. Last year Azerbaijan provided Georgia with such assistance, but, today, the situation is quite different. No coincidence that Azeri Fuel and Energy Minister Natik Aliyev says that the possibility of Azeri gas supplies to Georgia this winter will depend on the volume of gas consumption inside Azerbaijan. This is just a diplomatic proviso – we perfectly know how much gas on an average we consume a month in winter. We also know how much we produce inside the country and buy from Russia. In other words, our authorities have not yet made a specific decision on the matter and are waiting for further developments.
Thus, whatever its outcome, the open conflict between Russia and Georgia will change the situation in the region. The Azeri authorities should clearly decide – either we keep neutral or we choose confrontation with Russia and strengthening of ties with GUAM. And we are running short of time for the choice. (Echo)
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