A few days ago REGNUM appeared with a new portion of sociological data. The news agency says it was prepared in Armenia on the order of “some US governmental institution.” As a result of a survey held among 2,000 people in the spring 2006, the US officials have got the “rating” of acting Armenian politicians, the “attitude” of the Armenian population towards Russia, the US, Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan and also the “position” of the Armenians concerning the prospects of the Nagorno Karabakh peace process.
As a rule, one should take such surveys philosophically, but the findings the American “sociological troops landed on” make one feel absolutely otherwise. We just hope that the “subscribers” for such a “research” will take its findings with humor and will not be too strict to their supplier, who must have decided not to hedge as long as he pledged.
The first part of the survey — about the popularity of Armenian politicians — must have been done most “painstakingly.” People were not asked tricky – and in this particular case, absolutely absurd – questions on the Nagorno Karabakh peace process. The matter was probably very urgent, and the careless sociologist decided to put just any percents against the names offered by the American “strategists.” This is the only reasonable explanation of the collage our surveyors have got and presented to the US State Department as “the rating of Armenian politicians.”
Artashes Geghamyan, who has happily ruined all opposition movements in Armenia, is presented as the leader of the top-10, local businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, who showed political ambition only recently, is the second, while the acting president Robert Kocharyan is just – modestly — the third. On the other hand, Stepan Demirchyan, the leader of the breaking-down “Justice” opposition bloc, a politician who has shown no symptoms of political activity for already a year, is higher on the list than Serzh Sargsyan, acting Defense Minister and generally-forecast presidential hopeful. Between them you will find Tigran Karapetyan, the owner of a local TV channel – the Americans would have learned more about his actual rating if they had asked people themselves.
I really wonder what conclusions and actions these “indices” may suggest to the US State Department. Rather skilled at supporting political aspirations in the South Caucasian states, the Americans now have a chance to appear with quite unusual stakes during the forthcoming elections in Armenia.
If the “rating” section is funny, the “geo-political” and “conflict” ones are quite puzzling. Probably, inspired by the 49% “favorable” attitude they got from the questioned, the Americans risked to ask them point-blank: “Do you support the idea of referendum in Nagorno Karabakh and who will take part in it?” And, probably, well aware who is lobbying the idea of referendum in NK, the surveyors put down the following figures: it turns out that as many as 55.2% are vitally interested in one more trial of the Nagorno Karabakh residents: for 15.6% it does not matter much who will vote for them (the Nagorno Karabakh residents) and some 5.3% even suggest holding the referendum in two states; Armenia (whose population is hardly 3mln) and Azerbaijan (with as much as 8.5mln). 15.3% advise the Americans to lobby the referendum “only among the refugees from Karabakh” – i.e. only among Azeris. To this we can add the advice to take into account the results of the survey and to insist that in Kosovo too the referendum be held only among Serb-refugees.
And with all this sociological information in hand, the Americans can well “ensure the most effective resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict” – something 33.3% of the “questioned” Armenians say. Well, let’s give Washington a chance to justify the “public opinion” in Armenia.
Viktor Yakubyan – expert on the South Caucasus
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