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Trouble in the Neighborhood: Are there implications for Karabakh?

By Aris Ghazinyan

ArmeniaNow reporter

Although Armenia’s Minister of Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian stated that “the Iranian problem will not influence the Karabakh negotiating process”, political analysts are inclined to think that a certain course of events may predetermine the logic of the resolution of the conflict.

“Currently intensive negotiations are being held between Baku and Washington regarding the degree of Azerbaijan’s participation in the possible war,” expert of the Caucasian Institute of Democracy Sergey Shakaryants says. “Unofficial sources in Iran testify that despite pacifist statements of Ilham Aliyev, Baku indeed is making an arrangement with Washington regarding the provision of its territory for temporary military bases.”

In the aspect of the solution to the Karabakh problem, today two possible scenarios are being elaborated. The first scenario is meant for the division of Iran, including maintaining the separatist movement in the Turkic-populated provinces of the country and first of all in the region of Eastern Atropatena, or as it is called in Baku “southern Azerbaijan”.

(The province of Eastern Atropatena occupies an exclusive place in the Caucasian policy of official Tehran. The immediate border with both Armenia and Azerbaijan determines the central position of the province and its strategic value.)

Remarkably, during the past years the leader of the Movement of National Revival of Southern Azerbaijan Makhmudali Chokhraganli has stated: “The Iranian regime will not be able to withstand the process of democratization. Along with democratization, we expect the reinstatement of Azerbaijanis in their natural rights, determination of Azerbaijan’s natural borders and determination of the capital of the south of Azerbaijan. We are for the federalization of Iran. The U.S. authorities very delicately treat the issue of Southern Azerbaijan. But everyone starts to realize that we are the most serious opposition to the Iranian regime. We proved it to the United States and the United Nations.”

“In that case, the multimillion Azerbaijani population of Iran may appear in the form of some ‘Kurdish factor’ in Iraq,” political analyst Viktor Solakhyan says. “However, official Baku does not trust the scenario of reunification proceeding from three considerations: first, there are no guarantees that the reunification will happen indeed, secondly – joining the game it has to recognize the substantiality of Armenian claims, and thirdly – there will begin a crisis in power regarding the matter of the leadership of the new state, something that authorities in Azerbaijan of course do not want.”

However, according to Head of the Department of Problems of International Relations of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis of Russia Sergey Markedonov, it is the scenario that “promises” some solution to the Karabakh problem. Practically, a situation is being formed in which Azerbaijan gets more than 40,000 square kilometers and, in concession, tolerates the handover of Nagorno Karabakh and some territories controlled by the NKR Defense Army to Armenia.

The second scenario, which political analysts say is more real and largely suits Azerbaijan, is the pre-planned exodus of tens of thousands of Iranian Azerbaijanis – crossing of the trans-border river Arax into the territories controlled by the NKR Defense Army under the pretext of fleeing air strikes. The appearance of tens of thousands of “refugees” in these lands will cardinally change the demographic situation in this region and may make the leaderships of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh face a fait accompli. It is obvious that after that the Azerbaijani population will hardly leave these lands. At least, introducing themselves as refugees they will try to enlist support.

(Azeris have the experience of a mass crossing of the border. On New Year’s night of 1989-1990, a “spontaneous” dismantling of engineering constructions began on the Nakhichevan-Iranian section of the Soviet state frontier and thousands of Azerbaijanis living in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic filed into the territory of Iran. Since then December 31 is marked as the Day of Solidarity of Azerbaijanis of the whole world. Later, it became known that it was a planned action – on that very day, the first World Congress of Azerbaijanis opened in Istanbul, Turkey.)

Official Tehran shows economic interest in territories bordering on Iran and controlled by the NKR Defense Army, which is always perceived by Baku as political. Sometimes, events acquired a very difficult dynamics.

In particular, still in March 2001, President of Azerbaijan Heidar Aliyev turned to the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran and pronounced against “the construction of the dam of Khudaferin on the river Arax in one of the areas occupied by Armenia.” He said that once Azerbaijan itself wanted to build a dam in that strip bordering on Iran, however, according to his data, today Armenia is already making arrangements with Iran on that account: “Cooperation of Iran and Armenia on the Azerbaijani lands occupied by it is impossible. There can be no talking about the construction of the Khudaferin dam until a peace deal is signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” Interestingly, to this angry statement of Azerbaijan’s president, Iran’s Energy Minister Kh. Bitaraf replied: “If the lands are liberated in a year, we can wait, but if the issue is dragged on, then Iran will be wasting time.”

In the event of a military aggression against Iran, the possibility of a mass relocation of tens of thousands of Azerbaijani “refugees” to these lands seems quite real. The more real is the possibility of Armenian Diaspora from Iran, the number of whom today fluctuates between 80,000-100,000 people, exiting. Political analysts think that the greater part of potential migrants will head for Europe and the United States, and only a small part of them will take refuge in Armenia.

“The number of the Armenian Diaspora in the Middle East is intensively decreasing,” political analyst Armen Ayvazyan says. “A majority of Armenians of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran head for the West, and very quickly they get assimilated. Despite the fact that there is a so-called ‘million colony’ of Armenians in the United States, Armenian schools are in fact attended by no more than 5,000 people. It is necessary that Armenia take care of its compatriots by offering them deserted territories in the Homeland. This issue becomes particularly urgent in the aspect of Iraq and a possible Iranian campaign.”

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