Meeting of the OSCE Minsk Group in Istanbul
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs consider it desirable that Karabakh peace agreement be reached this year, but this depends on the conflicting parties themselves, OSCE MG US Co-Chair Steven Mann says in an interview to RFE/RL. He says that in 2006 the parties should come to agreement to finalize the important work done so far. Mann does not agree with those saying that the OSCE is not a good format for the Karabakh peace talks. OSCE is the optimal format, but it is for the conflicting parties rather than the mediators to attain peace.
Azg daily reports OSCE MG co-chairs Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Steven Mann (US) and Bernard Fassier (France) to meet in Istanbul Mar 20 to confer about the current state of the Karabakh peace talks and to specify the further directions of the Kocharyan-Aliyev meetings after their failure in Rambouillet.
After their Mar 20 Istanbul meeting the OSCE MG co-chairs have not yet specified their further steps, Armenian FM Vardan Oskanyan says at a news conference. There are two ways: either the co-chairs will visit the region themselves or they will organize a meeting of the Armenian ad Azeri FMs. Oskanyan says that Armenia has done much from its part to promote the peace process and is now expecting the same from Azerbaijan. He notes that the much-talked-of possibility of peace agreement in 2006 has grown smaller. (Yerkir)
Zhamanak daily (Los Angeles) believes that the US has chosen Istanbul as the base of its current strategy, and this city will be mentioned increasingly often in the context of international politics. One such example is the OSCE MG meeting, whose results will get known shortly.
Novoye Vremya (Baku) reports Azeri Consul General to Istanbul Ibrahim Nabioglu to say that the talks were held behind closed doors, and even the very venue was not known. Though admitting that such talks should normally be secret, the daily wonders at such super-secrecy. For the first time the co-chairs behaved as VIPs hiding from annoying paparazzi and NGOs, from TV cameras and voice recorders, from any open or secret devices for tapping, observing and fact-finding, says the daily. Commenting on the words of the head of the Azeri president administration Novruz Mamedov that “the key goal of the OSCE MG co-chairs’ meeting is to pave the way for the Azeri-Armenian talks,” the daily says: “It passes all understanding: for 12 years experienced diplomats — and also grown-up people – can in no way find a way to move the talks further!”
Zhamanak daily from Los Angeles says that the Istanbul meeting was remarkable because it followed the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia and Turkey. Fried made no secret of its key goals – Karabakh and Iran, and these goals are obviously interlinked. But the most remarkable point was Fried’s ending his visit in Turkey by long talks on the Karabakh problem and Armenian-Turkish relations. The daily believes that after the enthronement of Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia and the withdrawal of Russian troops from that country, Armenian-Azeri relations have become the key geo-political problem of the region. That is, the key objective of Washington’s decision to undertake the Karabakh problem is to create an absolutely new situation. But a new status quo is impossible without normal Armenian-Turkish relations – open borders, diplomatic relations. Hence, the Karabakh peace package may well envisage Armenian-Turkish rapprochement, and any shift therein may signal a change in the Karabakh peace process.
Echo (Baku) says that they in Istanbul “are trying to bring the talks back to their former course.”
Mediating in the Karabakh peace process should be a country trusted by both Armenia and Azerbaijan, First Vice Chairman of the CIS Committee of the Russian State Duma Ahmed Bilalov said in a press-conference in Moscow Mar 20. He said that neither the EU nor the US can be “impartial judges” in the process. “The problem of mediator is the problem of both countries. We don’t insist on our being a mediator, but if Armenia and Azerbaijan decide we should be, we will be,” Bilalov said, stressing that Russia does not want an armed conflict near its borders. The problem of choice is open. The Karabakh conflict is painful for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. This was proved by the concern of the Azeri side during President Putin’s visit to Baku. “Putin promised that Russia will do its best to solve the problem peacefully and positively, and this is not just words,” Bilalov said. He noted that there has been much of personal in the actions for settling the Karabakh conflict so far. (Novosti-Armenia)
Russia wants to be a sincere peace-maker rather than war-monger in the Karabakh peace process, Russian political expert and publicist Leonid Radzikhovsky said in a press-conference in Moscow: “The problem is as follows: somewhere Russia wants to kindle conflicts, somewhere not. Russia does not want to kindle conflict in Karabakh – resumed conflict in Karabakh will nonplus Russia: if Russia helps Armenia, it will lose economically strong Azerbaijan, if it supports Azerbaijan, it will break its traditional ties with Armenia and aggravate its relations with the strong Armenian Diaspora in Russia.” (Novosti-Armenia)
Is the US pedaling the Karabakh peace process?
The US has its own policy on Karabakh, ARKA reports the secretary of the Justice opposition faction of the Armenian parliament Viktor Dallakyan as saying after his meeting with US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried and OSCE MG US Co-Chair Steven Mann. During the meeting the American diplomats openly said that they rule out the possibility of war. “They clearly said that the Karabakh problem cannot be solved by war,” says Dallakyan.
“There are three poles influencing the Karabakh peace process: the US, Russia and the EU. In principle, the US doesn’t want the South Caucasian conflicts to be resolved quickly as they are a kind of delta for the US presence and policies in the region,” Armenian political expert Igor Muradyan said at the conference “Models of Stability in the Black Sea-Caucasian Region” held by the Free Europe Foundation in Sochi. “The US has determined on Karabakh’s independence but will go to it slowly by first deciding what legal model can be applied to this subject and by solving some other relevant problems.” “It’s strange that Washington has not used this lever to influence Armenia’s foreign political orientation. On the other hand, in exchange for establishing the fact of Karabakh’s independence, the US wants to get access to Armenia’s domestic affairs.” In its turn, the EU is strongly against the idea of new states in the South Caucasus: “We hope that Russia will join this American ‘plot’ but it seems to have no other way but to join the EU.” Muradyan believes that there is some analytical society – “consulting” – in Russia that will by no means allow the recognition of Nagorno Karabakh. (A1+)
Asked by Aravot daily: “What was the primary goal of the Yerevan visits of the US State Department officials – to discuss: the post-Rambouillet situation, the problems of energy security or democracy issues,” the member of the board of the Armenian National Movement David Shahnazaryan says: “Not only are these three issues related but they are also parts of one general issue. I am sure that after Rambouillet the Karabakh peace process has entered a new stage that has several peculiarities. First, though an OSCE MG co-chair, Russia does no longer hide that Karabakh agreement is contrary to its interests and plans in the region. This has been proved by Ivanov’s and Putin’s statements in Baku, by the Russian media’s irony about Rambouillet and by Russia’s official and unofficial response to the US post-Rambouillet activity. The second peculiarity is that for the first time in 14 years the US has shown own initiative in the matter, even though before visiting the region the US diplomats met with the other OSCE MG co-chairs and told them about their plans and own initiatives. I highly appreciate the US’ efforts. In fact, the US has prevented Kocharyan and Aliyev from achieving their goal – to stop the peace process. The US has given a new impulse to the talks and has averted a new deadlock. The third peculiarity is that the prospects of the Karabakh, Abkhazian and Ossetian peace processes are viewed in the context of the Iranian ‘dossier.’ The US diplomats clearly said that these frozen conflicts are becoming a big threat for the region. The present stage of the talks has a different geo-political logic. Unfortunately, I am not sure that the Armenian authorities understand this difference.”
The US’ sway in the region has grown so big that they got sure they can solve the Karabakh problem on their own, says Zhamanak daily. The US’ initiative consists of two key factors: they want to remove Russian presence from the region (in this particular case – Armenia) (something they are doing in Transdnestr, Ukraine and Georgia) and to close the South Caucasus for Iran to make it a base for their possible Iranian campaign. But Iran is not their primary goal for the time being. Their priority now is to create a chain of countries from the Baltic Sea to Central Asia that would be free from Russia’s military and energy sway and would form an absolutely new American geo-political system in Eurasia. This chain or system would have a democratic lifestyle, an economy fed by western financial and technological centers and a membership in NATO. One more relatively new element has appeared in the Karabakh peace process of late – the prospect of “South Caucasian Marshall plan.” And so, the mechanism for resolving the regional conflicts is somewhere in the context of new system in the South Caucasus. Hence, the Karabakh peace talks have entered quite a serious stage that will bring big changes, if not specific solutions, says the daily.
International organizations
“The US and the OSCE are trying to resolve the Karabakh conflict, and the EU’s attempts to get involved in the peace process are part of the US’ stepped-up policy,” says political expert Aghavni Karakhanyan. The EU’s first serious attempt to get bigger role in the region was David Atkinson’s report at PACE. The report was exactly about Europe’s bigger role in the region. “The next, quite logical step was the European Neighborhood Policy – a project that among other problems plans to resolve conflicts, particularly, the Karabakh conflict. Meanwhile, NATO IPAP says nothing about conflicts. This may be just phraseology, and even though NATO gives no official priority to peace processes in the South Caucasus, it certainly wants to have a part therein,” says Karakhanyan. She notes that the EU’s increased activity in the region is quite natural. “The US and the OSCE are trying to resolve the Karabakh conflict, and the EU’s attempts to get involved in the peace process are part of the US’ stepped-up policy,” says Karakhanyan.
525th Daily (Baku) reports EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby to give a press-conference on the results of his visit to Baku. Semneby said that he will continue the work of his predecessor Heikki Talvitie, and his priority will be to solve the frozen conflicts in the region. He said that the EU can take part in the regional peace processes by sending observers, peacekeepers and by restoring infrastructures. Semneby said that Talvitie’s office was in Finland, while his office will be in Brussels, near the EU. This will allow him to give more attention to the problems of the South Caucasus. He said that there are still chances of Karabakh peace agreement this year: the key task is to reach agreements and to get concessions from the sides. One can find common grounds in any — even very complicated – peace process, Semneby said, noting that the EU is ready to forward its peacekeepers to the region.
About war
The Karabakh peace talks are going on, they are not in stalemate yet, Yerkir daily reports Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan as saying at a news conference. He said that the talks must be continued as war is bad for both Armenia and Karabakh. One way to resolve the Karabakh conflict is the official recognition of Karabakh’s independence by Armenia: “But the talks are still underway, and it’s not yet time to speak about it.”
“The Rambouillet meeting of the Azeri and Armenian presidents has shown to everybody that the Armenian authorities are finding it somewhat hard to find a way out of the situation. The whole world has seen that Armenia is non-constructive in the Karabakh problem. And so, any such statements – be they made by Armenian President Robert Kocharyan or Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan – are just for their local Armenian public,” Vice Speaker of the Azeri Milli Mejlis Ziyafet Askerov says to Day.Az, while commenting on the recent statement by Oskanyan, which can well be taken as a warning of a possible preventive attack on Azerbaijan.
Day.Az quotes Oskanyan as saying: “We can’t wait for Azerbaijan to get stronger and attack Armenia. We can take relevant measures to defend ourselves, which will hardly please Azerbaijan.” Askerov says: “Armenia is facing a very hard social-economic situation, and to distract their people from bitter reality the Armenian authorities are making such senseless declarations. Oskanyan’s phrase is certainly one of them. But in any case, we should be ready for any development.”
525th Daily says that the most memorable point of the US diplomats’ visit to the Karabakh conflict region was MG US Co-Chair Steven Mann’s warning that Azerbaijan may face undesirable consequences if its starts a new war: it will be quick and fruitless. War will not be a solution to this conflict either now, or in 20 years. If Azerbaijan still wants to resolve it by war, it will have to foresee its consequences. “The sides who want war should first ask what Azerbaijan’s strategic borders would be if war starts?” and “What will be the situation in the energy sphere and the investment flow? This warning shows that because of its investments in the region the US is strongly against any war, and that Azerbaijan must be careful with the war scenario as it can lose new territories. The negotiating process is in a deadlock, the international mediators are again seeking hard concessions and no-war plans from Azerbaijan.
No coincidence they are making such warnings just now. Azerbaijan keeps saying that it will never agree to the loss of Karabakh and that the peace talks can’t last for ever. After Rambouillet the Azeri president has already said for several times that Azerbaijan is not going to negotiate for the sake of negotiations and if it sees that the talks are just an imitation, it will leave the negotiating process. The last time he said that was his speech at the Mar 16 2nd World Azeris Congress. But war is not good for those having big interests in the region and, particularly, in Azerbaijan. That’s why such warnings come mostly from the US.
And that’s exactly why Mann asked “what would Azerbaijan’s strategic borders be?” The daily wonders: if that’s how America treats us, why have we made it a partner in our oil industry? Let’s admit that since our first oil contract we have viewed our partnership in the context of the Karabakh problem in hope that as soon as America gets dividends from our oil, it will get more attentive to this problem. “Still there is nothing strange in America’s behavior. Like any country, the US fits its policy to its political and economic interests. We must, certainly, accept the warning of the US diplomat about the consequences of war. If we have to start a war, we must get fully prepared for it and foresee all of its consequences. The same way America failed to foresee all the consequences of its military campaign in Iraq, and is now facing an endless war…”
The Vice Chairman of the Board of the Armenian National Movement party Andranik Hovakimyan gives an interview to 168 Zham.
“Why did the Rambouillet meeting fail?
”The whole process since 1998 has been just an imitation. The sides are creating illusions, but everybody knows that now, just like in 1998, the Karabakh conflict is just for keeping power. In both Armenia and Azerbaijan this unsolved problem helps the local regimes to stay in power. The “neither war, no peace” situation allows their police and army to control the politics and the economy. Everybody knew that the cautious optimism of the authorities would give nothing. With their diametrically different positions on Karabakh status, Karabakh and Azerbaijan should put this problem aside and start from something else if they really want to settle the conflict. But they don’t, the sides sit down — one says “independence” and the other “territorial integrity – the talks end and they get up. Everything is much more primitive than we imagine. Simply, they don’t want to solve the problem and will do their best to keep the status quo.
”Until when will they be able to keep it?
“Until the world community tackles this problem seriously. They have many levers of pressure, especially given the high corruption and the electoral fraud in Armenia and Azerbaijan. The world community will roll up its sleeves to solve the problem quickly, but such a solution will be bad for Armenia. There is one more scenario: Azerbaijan strengthens its economy, augments military expenses and solves the problem by war.
”But the West seems to have already started its pressure. After Rambouillet many have begun to say that Armenia and Azerbaijan have poor human rights situation and they should help us to build democracy upwards. Isn’t that the pressure you are talking about?
“I guess that’s the beginning of some process. Judging from the inadequate assessments of our referendum (on constitutional reforms — REGNUM) or the last elections in Azerbaijan (into the parliament — REGNUM), one can say that the process has not yet been started.
”Are the sides unwilling to solve the problem or is there something that doesn’t allow them to?
“For example, Russia will always do its best to keep up the semi-war spots in Karabakh, Ossetia and Abkhazia. This allows that country to influence all the sides, naturally to its own advantage – especially as Armenia has, in fact, become a kind of cudgel for Russia to impact one or another process in the region.
”But Russia’s latest statements seem to prove otherwise – that Russia is ready to help the conflicting sides…
“During that period Russia sustained many diplomatic defeats, and Putin’s statement just hung in the air. It was just words rather then starting action. I think that nobody – and the co-chairs either (OSCE Minsk Group — REGNUM) – have decided yet what they will do next.
”Robert Kocharyan says that if Azerbaijan stops the talks, Armenia will recognize Karabakh’s independence. Even the pro-governmental forces said that it was “a declaration of war.”
“Unfortunately, such problems are solved not in Armenia or Azerbaijan and not by Robert Kocharyan or Ilham Aliyev. They will do as the West tells them to. The bellicose rhetoric from both sides is natural. When they organized a rally Feb 28, they just wanted to show the world that there are serious problems. Not that they wanted the problem to be solved – people are not ready for that.
”How high is the possibility of war?
“In 1998 we said that the only alternative to mutual compromise is war. We say that now too and add that the longer this situation the bigger the possibility of war. The authorities also help in the matter. I think that people in Armenia and Azerbaijan will not agree to war – as this war will already have no grounds. This will just mean that the political elites have failed to agree on peace and will be responsible for the war.” (168 Zham)
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