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THE U.S. EXTERNAL RELATIONS COUNCIL DOES NOT BELIEVE THE KARABAKH CONFLICT MAY BE SETTLED IN THE NEAR FUTURE

The U.S. External Relations Council has considered processes referring to the Karabakh conflict settlement and come to a conclusion that despite forthcoming resumption of the talks no one believes the conflict may be settled in the near future, Haykakan Jamanak reports (05.11.05.).

To note, the international organizations, including the OSCE, CE and EU, as well as the U.S., used to state the sides were close to the conflict settlement and peaceful agreement might be signed in 2006. The reasons for the Karabakh conflict’s protraction have been revealed in the analysis titled “Nagorno Karabakh: the Crisis in the Caucasus”, paragraph “The outlooks for peace” prepared by the External Relations Council. “The so – called Minsk group being the OSCE structure have been trying to settle the conflict since 1994. It is said in some cases the signing of an agreement was cancelled a few minutes before it should have taken place. The so – called “Prague process” failed to yield results either. At the same time various structures, such as the International Crisis Group, go on searching for the ways of the conflict settlement”, runs the analysis. According to the External Relations Council, the main obstacle to the conflict settlement is succession of the phases leading to the problem solution. “The three parties – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh – deny breaking the ice waiting for another side to make concessions. Azerbaijan wants Armenia to put an end to the lands’ occupation, withdraw its troops from the territories and then discuss the final status of Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia wishes to settle the issues referring to the status first and then withdraw troops. For Nagorno Karabakh recognition of its independence is priority”, says the analysis. However, it is only one obstacle hampering the conflict settlement. According to the U. S. External Relations Council’s analysis, another barrier is a geopolitical factor, as any of the international mediators involved in the process has got his hidden motives. “For instance, Russia is not interested in the Karabakh conflict settlement, as maintenance of instability on the South Caucasus strengthens RF influence in the region. Azerbaijan thinks Russia adopts a one – sided stand in the region and supports Armenia more. In part, in 1994-1996 RF Ministry of Defense rendered great military assistance to Armenia. Azerbaijan also believes France stands for Armenia as well due to the efforts of the Armenian Diaspora residing there. The Armenian lobby in the U. S. is strong enough; however, recently the U. S. has been supporting Azerbaijan, taking into account the country’s geopolitical role in the struggle against terrorism, as well as the fact that Azerbaijan is oil – exporter”, the analysis runs. According to the External Relations Council, protraction of the Karabakh conflict settlement is unfavorable for Armenia, as due to oil economy is developing more rapidly in Azerbaijan than in Armenia. Opinion of a representative of the international research center John Hopkins Swante Cornelly has been cited in the analysis. He believes Azerbaijan will manage to enlarge military budget due to oil, so Karabakh conflict will be settled in the military aspect. “The problem is how strong the Azeri armed forces are, as the Armenian army is very professional”, the document runs. According to the External Relations Council, Nagorno Karabakh will maintain its de facto independence, even being marked within Azerbaijan on the map.

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