İçeriğe geçmek için "Enter"a basın

After Kyrgyzstan: Is Next Stage Armenia or Belarus?

Davut SAHINER (JTW) After Georgia and Ukraine, ‘velvet revolution’ hit Kyrgyzstan. President Askar Akayev has fled the country, and opposition MP Ishenbai Kadyrbekov was named acting president, hours after demonstrators overran the presidential palace in the capital, Bishkek.

Gangs of looters roamed through the city overnight, ransacking shops and setting fire to buildings. At least three people are reported to have died during the unrest. However it is understood that Kyrgyzstan has faced a popular movement.

The US named the ‘revolution’ democratic, while Russia and the neighboring Central Asia states are worried.

For many IR experts Kyrgyzstan is the latest stage of ‘the democratization process’ triggered by the United States in the ‘greater Middle East and Eastern Europe, from Ukraine to China borders. Nese Mesudoglu from Sabah, Turkish daily paper, argues that the US uses George Soros and his foundations-societies in order to undermine the existing ‘un-democratic’ governments. “Velvet revolutions follow Soros. When Soros goes a country, a revolution or unrest visit that country” Sabah says. Not surprisingly the Bishkek Soros Foundation was there before the ‘revolution’ and it is a well-known fact that the foundation was making great assistance to the opposition groups under the name of ‘education and democratization’. The budget of the Bishkek Soros Foundation is about 4 million dollars. Soros had made financial assistance to the Serbian, Ukrainian and Georgian oppositions.

Soros has foundations and societies in 30 countries. It is claimed that he supported opposition in Malaysia and Venezuela as well.

Withdrawal of the Russian Empire

It can be argued that the US continues to implement the ‘Greater Middle East Initiative’. The Initiative has two columns: Military Operations and Democratization Operations. In the second column, the US encourages the opposing groups and minorities to overturn the existing ‘dictatorial administrations’ or ‘anti-American powers’. In almost all countries experienced velvet revolutions the power was belong to the anti-American groups, and all these governments had good relations with Russia. Kyrgyzstan is a peculiar case, because the Kyrgyzstan case can be considered as message not only to the Russians but also to the Chinese. The country is at the crossroads of Russia, China, India-Pakistan and the Turkic-Islamic World. Possibly, it is the greatest gain for the US ‘Greater Middle Eastern Project’. Kyrgyzstan is a perfect ‘base’ to control Russian and Chinese politics in the region and to watch drug trafficking.

Next Target: Belarus or Armenia?

Kyrgyzstan is the latest example for the silk revolutions but not the last one. Many expects that the revolution wave will continue. Belarus is one of the possible candidates, but Armenia is the easiest one. President Robert Kocherian, Karabakh veteran, dominates the Armenian politics. He has very close relations with Russia and keeps the opposition under pressure.
As Emil Danielyan pointed out “the ruling regime has heavily relied on the oligarchs to manipulate elections and bully its political opponents, making it doubtful that any serious action will be taken to rein them in. They are able to bribe and intimidate local voters and resort to other election falsification techniques. Ballot box stuffing was commonplace during the 2003 presidential election, which Western observers described as undemocratic.” (Jamestown). The overwhelming majority of the Armenian population thinks that Armenian political system is not democratic and there is no hope for the future. The opposition started a huge campaign last year but Kocherian with his armed supporters from Karabakh severely suppressed the civil movement. Many were prisoned and tortured including very young and women. There are Russian military bases in Armenia and Kocherian Government is seen as the ‘only Russian ally’ in the Caucasus. Armenia also has good relations with Iran. The FBI investigates Armenian-Iranian connections in weapon trade and terrorism. There are a pro-Western governments in Azerbaijan and Georgia.

JTW, 25 March 2005

Yorumlar kapatıldı.