Emil Danielyan 11/23/04
An increasingly bitter dispute over election rules for future parliamentary elections could cause a split within Armenia’s governing coalition.
The Republican Party (HHK) of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian is at loggerheads with its two subordinate coalition partners, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) and the Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) party. The dispute centers on the composition of parliament, or, more specifically, how MPs are elected.
According to the existing law, 75 of the 131 members of the National Assembly are elected under the proportional system, with voters choosing a list of candidates fielded by a party or bloc. The remaining 56 seats are distributed in single-mandate constituencies under the first-past-the-post, or “majoritarian” system prevalent in the United States and Britain.
The vast majority of the Armenian lawmakers elected under the majoritarian system are wealthy government-connected individuals. In the overwhelming number of instances, these individuals wield immense economic influence within their respective constituencies, and are widely believed to have secured victory at the polls through bribery and manipulation. Many of them are affiliated with, or backed by the HHK — a key reason why Markarian’s party has the largest parliament faction and controls most local governments. The HHK is certainly Kocharian’s most influential supporter.
The junior coalition members would prefer to do away with first-past-the-post constituencies, and base future elections entirely on the proportional system. At the very least, they want to reduce the number of majoritarian seats in the legislature. The ARF, also known as Dashnaktsutiun, has warned that it could quit the coalition if the HHK continues to oppose a move to increase the number of parliamentary seats determined under the proportional system.
“Dashnaktsutiun reserves the right to reconsider its participation in the coalition government in the event of a breach of the goals spelled out in the [June 2003] memorandum on its [the coalition’s] creation,” warned Armen Rustamian, one of its leaders. He said expansion of the proportional system was one of the key terms of the coalition’s power-sharing accord.
The coalition cabinet has been beset by internal wrangling ever since its creation following the May 2003 parliamentary elections, which were marked by widespread accusations of fraud. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The ARF has regularly expressed its dissatisfaction with the slow pace of economic improvement, persisting government corruption and what its leaders characterize as the “power of money” in the impoverished country. The influential nationalist party, which has branches in Armenia’s worldwide Diaspora, toughened its rhetoric in early November after the HHK torpedoed its efforts at electoral reform.
The two sides have tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to bridge their differences. Tigran Torosian, a deputy parliament speaker and an HHK leader, said on November 23 that the Republicans will make a final attempt to strike a compromise deal later this week. Their failure to reach agreement would set the stage for Kocharian’s personal intervention in the row, which has already proven debilitating for the governing coalition. Keeping all of his major allies happy will be a difficult task, observers in Yerevan say.
Despite the recent rise in heated rhetoric, HHK leaders have been quick to shrug off the threat of an ARF departure. “Let nobody think that we become very concerned and nervous every time they talk about leaving [the coalition],” Markarian said in a recent newspaper interview.
Of all the other Armenian parties only Orinats Yerkir, which is led by parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian, did reasonably well in individual races in the 2003 parliament elections. Yet it too wants a greater share for the party-list seats. Proponents of the proportional system say that it would spur the development of political parties. Increased political competition, in turn, would make it more difficult for one party to get away with voting irregularities.
In a bid to prevail in the dispute, the rival camps have turned to other political groups for support. The Republicans are strongly backed on the issue by the People’s Deputy group of non-partisan lawmakers. Orinats Yerkir and the ARF, meanwhile, have enlisted the support of the United Labor Party (MAK), a small pro-Kocharian group also represented in the current legislature.
MAK leader Gurgen Arsenian claimed on November 18 that “new realignments” could occur both inside the parliament and the government. He said opponents of the majoritarian system are prepared to take “drastic steps,” which he declined to specify. “Time will tell whether or not there will be a change in the coalition format,” Arsenian told reporters. “I don’t rule that out.”
The existing balance of forces in parliament favors the HHK, the most powerful government faction. Together with the People’s Deputy group, they hold about 60 parliament seats compared to less than 40 seats controlled by their pro-presidential opponents. However, the junior coalition members could end up winning the electoral rules debate if they gain the support of the 23 lawmakers representing Armenia’s two main opposition groups, the Artarutiun (Justice) alliance the National Unity Party (AMK).
Whether the opposition parties are willing to join forces with the junior coalition members on the electoral rules issue is uncertain at this point. Artarutiun and the AMK are both known to be strong advocates of proportional representation, but they have boycotted parliament sessions since February 2004. The boycott is linked to the pro-presidential parliament majority’s refusal to consider a “referendum of confidence” in Kocharian. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The opposition refuses to recognize the legitimacy of Kocharian’s victory in the 2003 presidential vote. For more than a year after the election, the opposition pursued a popular protest strategy against Kocharian. That effort, however, failed to attract a sufficient following that could exert pressure on the president to either change political course, or step down. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Since abandoning the protest strategy, opposition leaders have kept a low profile, waiting for an opportunity to capitalize on the renewed government infighting. They may now believe such an opportunity is at hand and try to stoke the intra-governmental tensions by openly backing the electoral reform championed by the ARF. All of which makes the fast resolution of the coalition dispute even more urgent for Kocharian.
Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.
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